The two numbers that kill most STR deals
Occupancy and nightly rate. That's where optimism meets reality. And where most buyers go wrong. Here's what gets people in trouble.
The 70% occupancy trap
Everyone assumes 70%+ year-round. Peak season? Maybe. Full year? Most owners see 50–60%. Seasonality, competition, vacancy. It adds up. Assuming higher without real local data? Fragile.
If your deal only works at 75% occupancy, you're walking a tightrope.
Stale comps, stale rates
That "similar" listing at $200/night? Could've been booked months ago. Or in a better spot. Supply goes up, rates compress. New regs cut demand. Using comps without stress-testing lower? You're exposed.
We don't invent comps. We apply conservative defaults when you can't verify. And we tell you what we assumed.
Stress-test it yourself
Run the numbers at 55% occupancy. Drop the rate 15%. See what breaks. If the deal collapses, you're banking on best case. Smart buyers pause or walk.
We do this automatically. Conservative caps, three scenarios (strong, typical, weak year), and a verdict. No hand-waving.
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