Where the gap between projected income and your bank account kills deals
Projected STR income vs. what actually hits—that's where most deals die. Here's what breaks first. And how to plan for it.
Fixed costs. Variable revenue.
Mortgage, taxes, insurance—fixed. STR revenue? Wildly variable. A 10% occupancy drop can wipe months of thin profit. First thing that breaks in a weak year: cash flow. It goes negative fast.
Plan for vacancy in every market. Assume seasonality. Plan for the weak year—not the strong one.
Where buyers go wrong
Cleaning's per-stay, not monthly. Every turnover costs time and money. Utilities run higher than LTR. STR insurance keeps going up. CapEx? Roof, HVAC, appliances age. These costs pile up.
Conservative underwriting builds them in. Optimistic projections skip them.
What a bad year feels like
Monthly bleed. Stress for 6–18 months. The emotional load of carrying a negative-cash-flow property. Recovery? Slow. Markets don't bounce overnight.
The question isn't whether a weak year can happen. It's whether you survive it. If the deal only works in a strong year—it's not built to last.