STR seasonality reality check for underwriting

Peak vs. full year

In most markets, STR demand and rates swing by season. Summer or ski season might be 2–3x the revenue of the slow months. If you underwrite on peak only, you are assuming that performance holds every month. It usually does not.

Use full-year assumptions. If you only have peak data, haircut it. Assume 50–65% occupancy on average across the year unless you have verified local data that says otherwise.

What breaks in the slow months

Fixed costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, HOA) do not go down when occupancy drops. Revenue does. A 40% occupancy month with the same fixed costs can turn a thin deal negative. Vacancy, turnover, and lower nightly rates in the off-season compound the problem.

Plan for at least one or two slow months every year. If the deal cannot carry them, it is not resilient. For what breaks first in tight deals, see the STR fragility checklist.

Local patterns matter

Beach, mountain, and city markets all have different curves. Some have a sharp peak and long trough. Others are more even. Do not assume your market behaves like another. When we do not have market-specific data, we assume seasonality and cap optimistic occupancy.

How we handle it

We assume seasonality in every market. We do not treat peak performance as year-round. We show you strong, typical, and weak year scenarios so you can see how the deal holds up when the slow months hit. No guarantees, but the analysis is built for reality, not best case.

Practical takeaways

• Do not underwrite on peak-season numbers alone.
• Assume at least one or two weak months per year.
• If your deal only works at 70%+ occupancy year-round, treat it as fragile.
• Use a tool that stresses for seasonality and shows a weak-year scenario.

For why many calculators overestimate in the first place, read why STR calculators overestimate revenue. See our sample report for how we present scenarios, or run your deal for a conservative reality check.