Why STR calculators disagree by tens of thousands of dollars
Run the same property through a few STR tools and you will get different numbers. Sometimes tens of thousands apart. Here is why, and what to do about it.
If you only do one thing
Use a conservative reality check that shows scenario ranges and a clear verdict, not a single optimistic number. See STR Estimator or the sample report.
Seasonality
Many tools assume peak-season performance year-round. In seasonal markets, slow months can be 30–50% below peak. Small differences in how seasonality is modeled swing annual revenue by a lot. For more, see STR seasonality reality check.
Comp selection and quality
Comps may be newer, better located, or better amenitized than your property. One tool may use a tight radius; another may pull from a wider or different segment. The choice of comps alone can move estimates by thousands.
Data lag and sampling bias
Scraped or self-reported data can be stale. Listings that are no longer active still show up. Survivorship bias: you often see the ones that perform well. The ones that failed or sat empty are not in the sample. We do not claim perfect market data; when something is unknown, we say so.
Amenity and finish differences
They change rates and occupancy more than people assume. A pool, view, or higher-end finish can command a premium; a basic box cannot. Many tools do not adjust enough for these differences, so generalized comps over- or under-state your case.
Management and turnover
Self-manage vs third-party changes costs and vacancy. Per-stay cleaning and turnover between guests vary; many tools use simple averages. Management variance alone can swing net income by a meaningful amount.
Local regulation risk
New rules or enforcement can cut demand or add cost. Not all tools factor in regulation risk. A market that looks great today may look different in a year.
Cost blind spots
Cleaning, utilities, STR insurance, maintenance, and reserves add up. Many calculators use bare-bones expense assumptions. Real-world costs are higher. Small differences in expense modeling can move net income by thousands. For what breaks first when margins are thin, see the STR fragility checklist. For how to stress-test properly, read conservative STR underwriting.
What to do instead
Use a downside-first reality check. Run your numbers through underwriting that caps optimism, shows strong/typical/weak scenarios, and gives you a clear verdict. See the sample report or stress-test your deal.